COP30 in Belém forces a critical choice on adaptation and resilience as an estimated 3.6 billion people face rapidly worsening impacts like droughts, floods and heat stress. The central question is whether governments will translate urgency into concrete adaptation finance to protect vulnerable communities.
Glasgow-era commitments to increase adaptation funding are due to lapse, prompting debate over what follows. Negotiators must decide whether a new finance goal will require clear, measurable public contributions or rely on less transparent private mobilization. The Adaptation Fund’s ability to meet its mobilization target and secure a multi-year replenishment will be closely watched as a barometer of real commitment.
Multilateral development banks face pressure to align financing with country-driven approaches and to provide fast-start support for National Adaptation Plans. To date, 67 developing countries have completed NAPs while another 77 are in progress, underscoring demand for predictable resources to move from planning to implementation.
Estimated adaptation needs range from $215 billion to $387 billion annually, far above current flows. Developed countries are under growing expectations to renew or increase bilateral pledges beyond expiring Glasgow-era promises. Without tangible new commitments, the Global Goal on Adaptation risks remaining rhetorical rather than delivering on the ground.
Despite being established under the Paris Agreement, the Global Goal on Adaptation still lacks a mechanism to measure progress. The UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience set 11 targets and launched the UAE-Belem Work Programme, but negotiators must now agree a streamlined, scientifically robust indicator set that is usable across countries with differing capacities, and include equitable means-of-implementation indicators on finance, technology and capacity building.
COP30 President Corrêa do Lago has called for Belém to become the COP of adaptation implementation, challenging the presidency to embed adaptation across the conference architecture. The Baku-to-Belem Roadmap to mobilize $1.3 trillion and the COP 30 Action Agenda will test whether political commitments are matched by practical delivery, while the inaugural High-level Dialogue on Adaptation offers an opportunity to institutionalize adaptation as a standing pillar of climate action.
For countries like Pakistan and other highly exposed nations, outcomes on adaptation finance, robust measurement systems and elevated political attention will determine whether adaptation financing and implementation finally match the scale of the crisis. With clear finance targets, accountability and operational systems agreed in Belém, COP30 could mark the turning point where adaptation moves from promise to practice.
