MUZAFFARABAD: As Azad Jammu and Kashmir moves towards the July 27 Legislative Assembly elections, the Global Election Observer Network (GEON) has warned that growing political tensions, continuing protests in Rawalakot and incidents of election-related violence pose serious challenges to the smooth conduct of the electoral process.
GEON, which has deployed election observers across AJK and refugee constituencies in Pakistan, said in its latest assessment that the electoral landscape had undergone significant changes since the last elections, with the voter population increasing by more than half a million over the past five years.
According to data compiled by the observer mission, the total electorate has reached 3.8 million voters, showing an increase of 583,839 voters compared to the 2021 elections.
While describing the expansion of the electorate as a positive sign of democratic participation, GEON noted that the political environment remained highly volatile in several constituencies, particularly in Poonch Division, where the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) has continued its protest movement against the existence of the 12 refugee constituencies since June 9.
Observers stationed in Rawalakot reported persistent public mobilisation and growing resentment over the refugee seats issue, raising concerns about whether normal election activities could continue uninterrupted in the area. According to GEON’s field findings, the prevailing situation could complicate polling arrangements and voter access if tensions persist until election day.
The observer network also highlighted a series of disturbing incidents during the election campaign. Several political leaders reportedly faced hostile crowds and disruptions during campaign events, while a violent incident resulted in the death of a personal security guard accompanying former AJK prime minister and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party leader Sardar Tanveer Ilyas.
GEON stated that such incidents underscored the need for enhanced security arrangements to ensure the safety of candidates, campaign workers and voters.
The organisation further noted that one constituency had already witnessed the postponement of polling following the death of a contesting candidate, a development that added another layer of complexity to the electoral process.
According to GEON’s analysis, the contest is increasingly shaping into a two-way race between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), while the absence of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) from the electoral arena has significantly altered the political equation in many constituencies.
The observer mission believes that the 12 refugee constituencies, comprising more than 438,000 voters, may ultimately determine which party succeeds in forming the next government. Field assessments suggest that the PML-N currently enjoys a stronger position in several refugee constituencies located in Punjab, potentially giving the party a crucial advantage in the race for power.
GEON also pointed to the continuing influence of biradari politics across AJK. According to its observers, voting preferences in many constituencies remain heavily influenced by clan affiliations, with Rajput, Gujjar, Sudhan, Jat, Awan and Abbasi communities continuing to play a decisive role in determining electoral outcomes.
The observer mission noted that among the 45 constituencies, LA-7 Bhimber-III remains the largest with nearly 130,000 registered voters, while LA-30 Muzaffarabad-IV is the smallest. More than half of AJK’s territorial constituencies now have electorates exceeding 100,000 voters, reflecting changing demographic and political realities.
Despite concerns over security and political tensions, GEON acknowledged the efforts of the Election Commission in updating electoral rolls and preparing for the polls. However, it emphasised that ensuring a peaceful environment, particularly in sensitive constituencies, would be critical to maintaining public confidence in the electoral process.
GEON said its observers would remain deployed across AJK and refugee constituencies throughout polling day and the counting process, after which the organisation would issue a comprehensive assessment of the conduct, transparency and credibility of the 2026 AJK elections.
